NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 30 – An estimated three billion adults worldwide remain excluded from formal credit markets, representing a $10 trillion economic opportunity, according to a new report by the Atlantic Council.
The report, titled The Three Billion Person Challenge, was produced in collaboration with financial infrastructure firm Tala and authored by Ruth Goodwin-Groen. It focuses on the “Global Majority” — economically active adults who operate largely outside formal financial systems.
While global financial inclusion efforts have improved access to accounts, the report finds that credit usage has failed to keep pace. Account ownership in low- and middle-income economies has reached 75 per cent, but only 24 per cent of adults in these markets use formal credit.
As a result, about 2.5 billion adults, including more than half of account holders, have access to financial accounts but do not borrow from regulated lenders. Among those who do borrow, many lack access to credit products suited to their needs.
The report identifies high costs, lack of trust in financial institutions, and limited product relevance as the main barriers preventing wider credit uptake.
Kenya highlights trust deficit
In Kenya, the gap is particularly pronounced. Despite a financial inclusion rate of 84 per cent, only 16 per cent of adults are considered financially healthy.
According to the report’s findings, declining trust has driven many users away from formal credit. By late 2024, four in five Kenyans surveyed said they had been targeted by financial fraud.
Speaking at the report’s local launch in Nairobi, Ann Stella Mumbi, General Manager of Tala Kenya, said access to credit has improved, but usage remains a challenge.
“The issue of access has progressed, but usage is still a problem, largely due to lack of trust in financial service providers,” Mumbi said.
AI, infrastructure seen as solutions
The report calls for the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) to close the credit gap. These tools can support alternative credit scoring models, allowing lenders to assess borrowers who lack traditional financial histories.
To strengthen consumer protection and rebuild trust, Tala has launched the Global Debt Collection Dignity Initiative, aimed at promoting fair and transparent debt collection practices.
Kennedy Osore, Head of Public Affairs at Tala Kenya, said governments need to work closely with industry players to regulate debt collection.
“There is a need for clear frameworks, including licensing or registering debt collectors, to ensure accountability and consumer protection,” Osore said.
Outlook
Tala said it has served 13 million customers and disbursed more than $7 billion in credit over the past decade. The company plans to expand its use of advanced AI models and on-chain lending as part of efforts to extend responsible credit access by 2026.
