I want to state that the wheels on the Ethiopian-Tigray Conflict seem to have entirely fallen off, the mediation to broker the far-reaching Peace is slowly but surely metamorphosing into a pipe dream. It has become a no mean fete, a rugged boat in the desert sand.
However, I still don’t believe that the die is cast and all is lost for this conflict. There’s still a window of opportunity for peace and reconciliation if the bodies mandated to broker peace reconsider their strategy.
On its part, the government of Tigray has expressed and reiterated its readiness to resume negotiations brokered by the African Union, effectively putting the ball in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s court. It must be good mediators who can pull the plug to bring the parties on the table.
Now, it’s upon the mediation team to capitulate a proactive mediation pipeline needed to stop the entire region from being sucked into a greater abyss, save tens of thousands of lives and alleviate the suffering of millions.
The success of these mediation efforts will heavily depend on the military realities on the ground, the political will of the warring parties and the determination of the international community to end the war, as demonstrated by the diplomatic, financial, and other resources it deploys. Not just lip service and decoy shuttle diplomacy, actions should speak much louder.
Like never before,the success of mediation will depend on the mediators and their strategies. Proper process, structure and agenda for talks, how different issues at stake are prioritized
and other key ingredients for negotiations should be the key items on their user manual.
In this regard, the AU, as the lead broker for peace in consultation with other envoys, has yet to develop a formidable strategy nor got experienced mediation teams that have a reputation and legacy of resolving such collosal conflicts like this one of Ethiopia /Tigray .
Impartiality should be the cornerstone of proactive mediation, otherwise everything is bound to collapse once again. To call a spade a spade and not a big spoon, with the reservations expressed by Tigray over the current AU envoy, Olusegun Obasanjo, it is only imperative that the AU appoint other mediators acceptable to both parties.
It must be on record to note that the former Kenyan President H.E Uhuru Kenyatta, has been engaging both parties, he had made tremendous milestones in the talks.
It is for this matter that perhaps it’s high time that the AU considered swiftly by appointing Kenyatta as its lead mediator to Ethiopia/ Tigray to replace the visibly lethargic Obasanjo who has not been able to bolster the talks to a path of progress.
I must be on record to state that the conflict needs a mediator who will work towards achieving a military disengagement to curtail hostilities,this will in turn allow a return to peaceful negotiations towards a ceasefire and transitional security arrangement.
It must not be just a mere truce, but a complete ceasefire that requires an overall agreement on the political agenda for the items of peace negotiations.
From there, the talks can then find a launching pad into the unforeseeable future of brokering a long standing peace. Otherwise, we may be held captives in fruitless circumvention and gerrymandering as lives and livelihoods continue to perish in this Conflict.
I there for call upon the African Union to move FAST and create the bew STRUCTURES and FRAMEWORK otherwise the conflict might just deteriorate and mutate into something else beyond our control.
Lastly , we must call out countries that are supplies arms to both sides . The latest being Eritrea entering Tigray and strangulating the Tigray people in a the style similar to siege of Sarajevo. Time against race .
Thanks
The writer is a Political Scientist, Conflict Resolution Expert &Investigative journalist based in United Kingdom
