By Charles de Blondin, a consultant in economic intelligence and international affairs and the founder of the website billetdefrance.fr
NAIROBI, Kenya, April 8 – The recent uncovering of a coup attempt and a plot targeting Colonel Michaël Randrianirina is highly concerning. Reports suggesting the involvement of senior military figures underscore deep divisions within the security apparatus.
This raises a fundamental question: are these divisions contained, or do they reflect a broader loss of control? In a region already challenged by illicit trafficking and insecurity, weakened Malagasy security capacities could have ripple effects across the Indian Ocean.
Political transition in question
Persistent rivalries and confrontational political dynamics highlight the fragility of Madagascar’s transition. For European partners, a key concern is whether the current trajectory is stabilizing institutions or prolonging uncertainty, especially with the 2027 presidential election on the horizon.
Colonel Randrianirina’s approach—alternating between displays of authority and reactive crisis management—signals a leadership still calibrating its power, raising questions about medium-term political predictability. In addition, recent audits reveal structural gaps: under-staffing, unfilled positions, and a highly centralized decision-making process.
European actors must consider whether Madagascar’s administration has the operational capacity to implement international cooperation programs, deliver projects, and honor its obligations. The absence of representation in key international forums illustrates current state limitations.
Governance challenges impacting donors
Significant public fund news and irregularities in strategic sectors raise questions about oversight. For European financial partners, the reliability of management systems and fund traceability is critical. Reports linking illicit flows to political destabilization highlight the intersection of governance weaknesses and security risks.
For example, the deepening military ties with Russia—including equipment deliveries and training personnel—introduces strategic uncertainty. European partners must ask: is this a pragmatic diversification of partnerships or a deeper geopolitical shift? What are the medium-term implications for access to strategic infrastructure and regional influence? In an already competitive geopolitical context, this alignment adds a layer of unpredictability.
On a different note, economic hardship and political influence campaigns targeting young people, especially Gen Z, remain a critical concern. Mobilizations among youth could accelerate instability in an already fragile environment.
The growing criticisms on social media indicate shifting public sentiment. The former period under Andry Rajoelina is sometimes recalled as providing more predictable governance. While marginal, these references reveal an emerging need for clear leadership in a context perceived as uncertain.
Immediate outlook and strategic implications
Taken together, these factors paint a picture of a state under multiple, mutually reinforcing pressures. Current responses appear limited relative to the scale of challenges.
For European partners, the immediate questions are twofold: can Madagascar restore a stable, coherent framework, and how should international actors anticipate risks from governance weaknesses or shifting alliances?
In this volatile context, the coming months—and even the coming weeks—will be decisive, both for Madagascar and for the strategic balance of the western Indian Ocean.
