By Dr. Frankline Keter
NAIROBI, Kenya, Mar 23 – For many people, wars sometimes feel distant.
The headlines appear geopolitical, military, or diplomatic – with a very eerie reminder of the fragile world we live in.
This topic is intense and needs time to prosecute separately, but the consequences of conflict, as we may know, extend far beyond the battlefield, rippling through the interconnected systems that sustain the global economy.
Today, many industries rely on seamless flows of raw materials, manufacturing inputs, and finished goods; even distant disruptions can have immediate and far-reaching effects.
For sectors such as pharmaceuticals, conflicts occurring thousands of kilometers away can swiftly lead to rising medicine costs, supply shortages, and growing uncertainty for both patients and healthcare systems.
The current conflict in the Middle East is already affecting the global pharmaceutical supply chain.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy corridor, have increased insurance costs for maritime transport.
Ships are rerouting around the Horn of Africa, adding up to two weeks to transit times.
Fuel prices have risen sharply as oil markets respond to instability, with Brent crude trading 50 percent above pre-war levels.
At major logistics hubs such as Jebel Ali in Dubai, the flow of goods has slowed significantly.
These disruptions may appear distant from pharmacies and hospitals, but their impact on pharmaceutical manufacturing is immediate.
Modern medicine production relies on a tightly coordinated global supply chain. Raw materials, chemical solvents, packaging inputs, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) move between continents before reaching patients.
When shipping slows or becomes more expensive, costs increase at every stage of manufacturing.
Pharmaceutical companies are already reporting higher prices for key petrochemical-linked inputs.
Freight costs for containers have doubled in some cases. Media reports indicate that acetaminophen, a key ingredient for paracetamol, is about 30 percent more expensive, while antibiotics and solvents have increased by 50 percent.
As a result, suppliers are holding back inventory to assess market stability and adjust pricing.
Manufacturers using just-in-time supply chains are experiencing delays and uncertainty in obtaining critical ingredients.
The price hikes of key raw materials will raise manufacturing costs, increase pressure on medicine prices, and potentially cause supply disruptions.
For Africa, these challenges are significant because it imports most of its medical products and nearly all the raw materials required for their manufacture.
As such, any disruption to the supply chain quickly creates local vulnerabilities.
For instance, during COVID-19, many African countries faced severe delays in accessing essential medicines due to disrupted supply chains, and exporting nations prioritized their own needs.
This experience should have resolved the debate. However, as the pandemic eased, the urgency around building pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity in Africa slowed down – on the back of assumptions that global supply chains would stabilize and operations would return to normal.
Some stakeholders reverted to the view that “it may be expensive to set up upstream manufacturing in Africa.”
The current geopolitical crisis ushers into an era of more frequent shocks, including geopolitical tensions, climate disruptions, pandemics, and economic fragmentation.
Each of these can disrupt the supply chains essential for pharmaceutical production.
In this context, reliance on distant manufacturing hubs is not just a trade issue but a matter of health security that requires deliberate strategy.
Africa must act urgently to strengthen its pharmaceutical manufacturing base, especially in upstream API production, which is fundamental to medicine manufacturing.
Encouragingly, the continent has already begun to demonstrate progress.
In Nigeria, Emzor Pharmaceuticals, in partnership with Verod, local banks, and the European Investment Bank, is establishing the first malaria API manufacturing factory in sub-Saharan Africa.
This project marks a significant step toward reducing reliance on imported raw materials and strengthening pharmaceutical resilience.
Other companies advancing API production include CPT and Aspen API (Fine Chemicals Corporation) in South Africa, and Pharco B International in Egypt. API for Africa (APIFA) engaged with these companies about 18 months ago under the Coalition of API Producers (CAPIP), highlighting the urgent need to collaboratively build an API production ecosystem in Africa.
It is clear that pharmaceutical resilience depends on building a robust ecosystem over time.
This includes investment in API production and other pharmaceutical products, formulation manufacturing, regulatory strengthening, supply chain coordination, capacity building, and new industrial infrastructure to support emerging technologies.
Governments and development partners must treat pharmaceutical manufacturing as a strategic health priority, not just an industrial ambition.
Effective financing mechanisms are needed to help manufacturers scale – we implore Africa-based financing institutions, starting with the Africa Development Bank and Afrexim Bank, to do more.
Africa has the scientific talent, a growing pharmaceutical market, and an expanding base of manufacturers capable of scaling production.
Sustained commitment to building systems that enable these firms to operate competitively will ensure the manufacturing sector in Africa remains sustainable.
This requires supporting regional pharmaceutical manufacturing hubs, strengthening local input supply chains, and mobilizing catalytic financing to reduce risk for manufacturers investing in new production capabilities.
Most importantly, local pharmaceutical production must be recognized as a necessity, not a luxury.
The continent cannot continue to rely almost entirely on imported medicines as global supply chains become more fragile.
Every major disruption in recent years has shown that, in times of crisis, countries prioritize their own needs.
Africa must ensure it has the capacity to produce more essential medicines locally, both for its own use and for export to other parts of the world.
The current geopolitical turmoil is another clear warning after the COVID-19 pandemic.
The question remains: how many more warnings are needed before we act with the urgency this issue requires?
The time to accelerate progress in local manufacturing is now.
Keter is CEO of API for Africa (APIFA), a pan-African organization advancing local pharmaceutical manufacturing and strengthening medicine supply chains across sub-Saharan Africa.
