Ethnicity, politics of belonging, track record and choice of running mate will certainly be big factors in this election. However, it is also encouraging to note that there are indications that the 2022 election is also going to be big on the manifestos. You see, we have like three grand manifestoes and despite the differences inherent in Raila Odinga and William Ruto’s manifestos, they offer pathways for discriminating the choices that we have.
There is no doubt the two coalitions have a clear picture of the challenges we have today in this country and that can be seen in Kenya Kwanza’s 5 point plan and the 10 points Inawezekana Agenda by Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance. They both agree on the cost of living and notably Kenya Kwanza has an interesting pathway to a solution. They argue, and rightly so, that we need to build a production capacity locally to cushion the country from the global crises and the attendant shocks like The Russian invasion of Ukraine. Essentially, they exonerate the current government from some of these causes of inflation and runaway high cost of living without flinching yet in the rallies they will remind Kenyans of how the current problems are a creation of the handshake and the BBI.
It is not lost on Kenyans that they presented a fairly progressive plan with very little substance on how they will address the core issues that have put us where we are today. You see, you cannot cure some of these problems, especially of inflation by lamenting that in 2017 the cost of unga was Ksh 75. In fact, if the cost of unga is 200 today and that unga is locally produced, and the farmers are guaranteed more than the guaranteed minimum returns on investments, it would still be high, but no one would be complaining because that money would be circulating in the economy.
You see when locally produced products prove costly, even if the government was to come in with tax reliefs, it is the local farmers who will benefit and the entire value chain from the farm inputs to the supply of these inputs to farmers and the eventual supply of finished products to wholesalers and retailers would benefit a wider chain locally. The domino effect of such a wide supply chain is that more people will have money in their pockets and the factors of demand and supply will determine the price to everyone’s happiness. Other than in the dairy industry Kenya Kwanza lack depth in their discussion of the productive industry, yet production is the key to a resilient economy. Putting the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance and Kenya Kwanza manifesto side by side, one realises that the heavy attention and intent on boosting production, manufacturing, and industrialisation with at least one manufacturing product portfolio in all the 47 counties offer a more practical solution in enhancing economic resilience and economic revolution that would put money in people’s pockets at the micro-level. Looked at the other way, if all the counties were to produce a product with substantive value addition and the cost of that product went up and the government came in to cushion the consumers, then it is producers in that county who will benefit.
Unless we invest in production, any shock on the global economy that affects countries that we import from will see the government subsidy and tax reliefs benefit foreign producers, a situation that benefits other countries and their citizens. And woe unto an importing country when the countries they rely on suffer crises. The cost goes way higher.
Granted, it is not like Kenya Kwanza has not focused on production. Far from it. They are big on agriculture and how to enhance value addition, which is encouraging, but Azimio is pegging growth and addition to our economy on a distributed and decentralized approach that would enhance a nationwide economic revolution. Two, Azimio provides a mechanism for safeguarding these gains, something that is conspicuously missing in the Kenya Kwanza one man show plan.
In fact, the crux is, between the Raila/Martha ticket and the Ruto/Rigathi ticket which leadership will provide the citizens a recourse to holding them accountable? History tells us that promises have been made before, including promises of mechanising agriculture, reducing the cost of living and boosting the manufacturing sector. These promises were well articulated by William Ruto as the defacto ideologue in the Jubilee party in 2017. Our women are still tilling land using jembes because five years down the lane the tractors that they were promised are nowhere to be seen and then add the fact that Rigathi Gachagua’s will be preoccupied with unfreezing his accounts when they get to power, and it becomes clear that the priorities after winning might be different.
There are fairly critical questions that will inform how the war of manifestoes and the attendant interpretations will span out. In fact, the Ksh 50 billion a year hustler fund will be juxtaposed with the Ksh 6K social protection fund and the viability of both interrogated in terms of value addition to our economy. Whereas the 2 million households that live below the poverty line with no means of dignified survival can be identified and a pathway to disbursement borrowed from the elderly funds transfer, it is unclear who a hustler is. In fact, it is anyone’s guess how Kenya Kwanza will operationalise the word hustler and identify the very people to benefit from the Sh50 billion. If a mama mboga is a hustler, a juakali artisan is a hustler and a boda boda guy is a hustler, then there in you can see a fertile area for corruption. Any other idler can start selling mboga or masquerade as a boda boda guy and before we realise folks in linen suits will be smiling to the bank in the name of the Sh50 billion hustler’s fund. Juxtapose that with Azimio’s agenda of Azimio la Viwanda which seeks to mainstream and credentialise the experience of Juakali artisans, standardise their productions, provide government infrastructure like TIVET facilities and incorporate them into the manufacturing and production value chain.
The signs on the digital platform and the conversations in the legacy media and along the streets, coffee shops and many other public places are encouraging as people seem to be having opinions on what the different formations portend. Throw in Prof Wajackoya and his medical marijuana and hyena testicles and the conversation will go on and on and to some very good effect. The ideal would be that people take their positions on who they support and advance the reasons why they support Baba and Martha Karua or William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua based on the manifestoes. However, the reality still speaks of who is supporting the top contenders and the credibility and political clout of the leaders around the presidential candidates will have a big say in how the manifestos influence the citizenry. Interestingly in a field of two top presidential contenders and a third maverick with radical proposals, when you see the maverick take side, then maybe the contest is over.
The author is a PhD Candidate in Media Studies and Political communication.
