The excitement on the political front is palpable, especially after the ‘earthquake’ that blew off OKA and left Gideon Moi and Kalonzo Musyoka shell shocked. For a politician who has been talking about trust deficit and Luhya having one of their own on the presidential ballot that was a double betrayal of his fellow OKA principals and the Luhya nation in one single move that failed to provide any cogent philosophy of what Musalia Mudavadi stands for.
Well, while the ANC leader has been big in the public domain discussing the economy, it does seem that instead of giving us a solid economic blueprint on this auspicious day that his party delegates were giving him the power run for the presidency he chose the narrow and dangerous path of unfounded illumination of our economy. It is actually safe to argue that his speechwriters and advisors went to sleep at best or are simply out of touch with the recent developments and blinded by bitterness.
However, what baffles many Kenyans is the bitterness, especially the bitterness with President Uhuru Kenyatta which has completely blinded the son of Mululu and placed him at this pedestal where he sees what he wants to see. From his tweets and public addresses in the joint UDA, ANC and Ford Kenya rallies, there seems to be a lot of bitterness and vile that speaks of a wounded man who probably thinks he has lost what he was entitled to. Seems like he has refused to accept that he is not the chosen one and he is in fact letting the cat out of the bag. He has simply refused to move on and the reaction, which appears like a resolve to hit back and bring everyone down has all the hallmarks of self-annihilation.
If his move was smart and well thought out, it would be working for him and he would be celebrating or better still be invigorated and not lamenting! He wouldn’t be looking back and try to hit back or even prove a point to anyone, especially if as an economist his misses are a glaring even to even grade seven business education pupils.
Recent financial reports on our economic performance seem to indicate that we have done fairly well in the last few months since the easing of the COVID-19 restrictions. Data indicates that money circulating outside the banking system rose by Sh2.8 billion to Sh238.6 billion in the last three months. The latest data published by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) also seem to speak of a fairly balanced economic recovery plan against the backdrop of the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic. It does appear that the economic stimulus packages in the last 19 months, especially the Ksh 5 billion seed capital and the SMEs credit guarantee scheme, and the government fiscal approach to dealing with the pandemic has cushioned many Kenyans who are now back to their economic activities, especially at the micro-level.
But from the ANC NDC, we got fairly ludicrous claims that need to be put in perspective. The most interesting was this claim that “the whole country is on the mortgage.” Well, Kenyans definitely remember that just last year, IMF, one of the Bretton Woods institutions, a global benchmark of economic prowess gave Kenya a thumps up on its economic growth and resilience despite the COVID-19 disruptions and went ahead to advance Kenya a loan facility. One would expect an address by a presidential candidate in an NDC to rise beyond the unfounded street gossip bandied within the context of the now-debunked debt trapped narrative. If Kenya was indeed mortgaged no lender would be willing to enter into an economic deal with the country, at least not IMF with their abundance of caution on a country’s ability to sustainably pay its loans.
On agriculture, we did not get any solid blue print, instead, the lamentation continued with the damming assertion that agriculture in this country is dead! Kenya is one of the unique countries whose economy is agricultural based and the death of agriculture would probably grind this country to a halt given that we boast of no other major natural resources. In fact, a broader situation of this claim gives us a different picture. Less than four months ago, the President in one of economic stimulus package gave Ksh 3 billion coffee revolving fund to the coffee sector to boast access to credit facilities; took over the New Kenya Planters Co-operative Union, a development that has saved farmers from exploitation; and prioritised affordability in the supply of farm inputs by advancing Ksh 3 billion for the supply of inputs through the innovative e-vouchers. Agricultural economists say that these initiatives, especially the e-vouchers, have in a big way bolstered agribusiness for close to 200,000 small and medium-scale farmers. Suffice to say, while some of these presidential hopefuls were busy in campaign trails; hollering about trust, betrayal and deceit in our politics the government was rolling out serious economic stimulus programs that targeted agricultural sectors. The sugar cane sector got a 1.5 billion and the horticultural and flower producers was allocated Ksh 1.5 billion to help in accessing and maintaining the international markets. In the ASAL counties, through the national Livestock off-take program Ksh 1.5 billion was injected into the livestock sub-sector and some of these sectors have been boosted repeatedly over the last 19 months.
Fact is, the excitement of the UDA, ANC and Ford Kenya will die off and Kenyans will become more critical of what is now concretising as a two-horse race between the Deputy President and Raila Odinga. What Hon Musalia Mudavadi and Senator Moses Wetangula have done, is bury any chance of having a third force and if the Azimio la Umoja coalition get all the other OKA principals on their side, we will have a fairly close contest, but good for Kenyans because there is enough time to interrogate the two political formations. Suffice to say, Mudavadi and Wetangula have succeeded in creating this perception that Raila Odinga has lost two of his key 2017 lieutenants, but by joining the DP they have done Raila a big favour. One, because a formidable third force would have been a bigger challenge to Raila and two, they are now locked in a vehicle that has all the colouration of corruption that even a retreat will be a lot more detrimental than joining the DP, a move that has already seen their close allies scamper for safety out of both ANC and Ford Kenya. After the rallies and the excitement both sides of the political divide will have to deal with infighting and pecking order issues and the reality of winning votes. Big rallies and votes are not necessarily mutually inclusive.
The author is a PhD Candidate in Media Studies and Political communication.
